In his review of the Premier League weekend, our tipster Jones Knows thinks that Brentford’s struggle against Nottingham Forest might be ignited by Ivan Toney’s return.
Despite the fact that Brentford has only won three of their previous eight Premier League games, Toney must have been keeping an eye on the club since they are still producing opportunities for their attackers. The Bees have only scored seven goals in those eight games out of a total projected goals number of 12.7; this is a trend that has hindered them the whole season. Brentford is the Premier League team with the worst xG underperformance, scoring 7.85 goals less than their xG of 33.85.
Ivan Toney, a striker for Brentford, says he is eager to play in the Premier League again and is even looking forward to his warm-ups!
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With a 22 percent conversion rate and a player like Toney who scored 20 goals in the Premier League last season, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that the trajectory of that poor performance in front of goal is likely to improve. Toney has scored in each of his three games against Forest; in April 2023, he scored his final goal prior to receiving a suspension. The odds of 11/10 with Sky Bet for him to score are a good place to start.
- Frank: Toney will lead Brentford back and start.
- Toney: The ideal moment to relocate is never predictable
He’s one of the league’s most fouled goal scorers in addition to being one of the most feared.
In his two seasons in the Premier League, Toney has averaged 2.36 fouls won per 90 games, ranking him as the 11th most fouled player in the league during that time. The responsibility of battling Toney is expected to fall to Forest center-back Murillo, and his 3/1 odds with Sky Bet to commit two or more fouls during the game do look very generous.
In his previous 14 games, he has committed 13 fouls, with two or more in four of those games. A 15/2 chance to attack is generated by using the Bet Builder with Sky Bet to back Toney to score and Murillo to commit two or more fouls.
SUNDAY 2 PM: SHOWERNUM vs. WEST HAM, SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Without Jarrod Bowen, Mohammed Kudus, and Lucas Paqueta, I really question West Ham’s short-term future.
With Kudus out due to the Africa Cup of Nations, Paqueta sidelined due to injury, and Bowen uncertain, the Hammers appear vulnerable going into this match. From whence do they draw their objectives? Even before they were down to 10 players in their FA Cup loss to Bristol City, they appeared to be at a loss for ideas.
Ten of their past 14 goals in all competitions have been scored by Bowen or Kudus, while Paqueta has contributed six assists in his last 254 minutes of Hammers play. David Moyes has little choices because Michail Antonio is still out. Despite this, his squad is achieving the highest non-penalty conversion rate in the Premier League this season—19%. With just 157 opportunities generated this season, they are the second-worst club in the league in terms of chance generation; only Sheffield United (91) have produced less.
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All of this is causing an overachievement in front of goal, primarily because of Bowen and Kudus’ genius. When you take them out of the picture, West Ham is just a different squad. The Blades have a great chance here, and Sky Bet has them favored to win at 5/2.
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